Chapter 3: The Relationship between the Environment and the Economy
3.1. Science and forecasting
The most fundamental foundation of a sustainable planned economy is environmental forecasting based on science, before any other economic theory. This is because a sustainable planned economy is an economic structural measure to essentially prevent possible future environmental degradation and environmental death of the earth.
The question in this regard is whether science can withstand the act of forecasting. Science consists of the accumulation of analytical intellectual activities, and analysis is usually an activity to analyze and clarify the causes and mechanisms of some event that has already occurred, not necessarily to foresee events that may occur in the future.
This is reflected, for example, in the fact that despite dedicated attempts to foresee disasters such as earthquakes, no methodology for accurate prediction has yet been established. Pessimism about disaster foreseeing also persists. While it is possible to analyze disasters that have occurred, it is impossible to foresee disasters that may occur.
It is true that it is extremely difficult to accurately "foresee" the occurrence of specific disasters, but disasters do not occur suddenly and unexpectedly, but rather, they are manifested as disasters at a certain point in time through a process of long-term natural change. Therefore, it is possible to recognize the natural changes that lead to disasters and to make long-term "forecasting."
In summary, scientific forecasting is possible, although scientific foreseeing is extremely difficult. The foundation of a sustainable planned economy is environmental forecasting as such scientific forecasting. In fact, scientific environmental forecasting has been actively conducted in recent years in relation to climate change, which is now an urgent issue.
However, these climate change forecasts are often rejected by skeptics. Moreover, skeptics, or politicians under their influence, often rise to deny or mitigate environmental measures based on climate change projections.
As is the fate of scientific forecasting, it is difficult to draw conclusions with absolute certainty. This is the difference from the case of analyzing an event that has already occurred. Forecasting an event that has not yet occurred, by its very nature, must be a probability theory that includes the possibility of modification. Therefore, the emergence of skepticism cannot be ruled out.
Therefore, scientific environmental forecasts should be built around short-term forecasts with high probability, while being aware of the existence of skepticism and open to the possibility of modification, and distinguishing between long-term and short-term forecasts, with long-term forecasts limited to those that represent merely one possibility.
Therefore, even if scientific environmental forecasts are used as the basis for specific economic planning, they should be reflected in relatively short-term economic plans (three-year plans) based on short-term forecasts. Long-term forecasts, on the other hand, are used as a reference material to determine the direction of the next and subsequent plans.
๐The papers published on this blog are meant to expand upon my On Communism.
